Abu Dhabi's Adnoc expects exports of its flagship light sour Murban crude to rise steadily this year as the state-owned energy giant begins to diversify its domestic refinery crude slate. In its latest forecast, Adnoc projects that 1.5mn b/d of Murban will be available for export in January and February 2023, up from 1.25mn b/d in March this year. The increase reflects Abu Dhabi's plan to start refining offshore crude at its 817,000 b/d Ruwais refining complex, freeing up more of the higher-value Murban grade for export. Adnoc began reporting its forecast for Murban exports when it launched the Murban futures contract on the Ice Futures Abu Dhabi (IFAD) exchange in March last year. Murban sells at a premium to the UAE's offshore grades and the crude is the country's largest by volume, accounting for around half of Abu Dhabi's total crude production capacity of more than 4mn b/d.
At the moment, some of the Murban stream goes to Ruwais to be refined domestically. Ruwais' 580,000 b/d of crude processing capacity is currently set up to run exclusively on the grade, which is produced from Abu Dhabi's onshore fields. But engineering and construction work on a crude flexibility project that will enable Ruwais to process heavier and more sulphurous offshore grades such as Upper Zakum is set to conclude mid-2022. The March official selling price (OSP) for Murban has been set at $85.11/bl, up from $74.36/bl in February. The March OSP is the monthly average of the daily Singapore marker prices for the front-month March Murban futures contract on IFAD in January.