After being severely hit by a two-month national lockdown imposed to contain the coronavirus pandemic, Italy's exports have shown signs of recovery since May.
And, although affected, the country's exporting firms might be able to adapt better to the economic impact of the health crisis, compared to those operating in the domestic market, official data and analyses suggested.
In March and April, most productive activities in Italy were halted, and exports fell sharply. In May, there was an overall improvement, and Italian sales abroad rose month-on-month by some 35 percent, according to the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT).
"The export recovery in May was determined more or less to the same degree by sales to European Union (33.7 percent) and to non-EU markets (36.5 percent)," ISTAT explained.
Data on June against May also confirmed "the recovery of exports towards non-EU destinations (14.9 percent)," it added.
Yet, a wide gap with 2019 levels remained. Against the same month of last year, exports in June were down by 12.1 percent.
The sectors contributing more to this annual downward trend were refined petroleum (-62.1 percent), transport equipment excluding vehicles (-24.9), motor vehicles (-20.5), other machinery and equipment (-8.4), and basic metals and metal products (-9.4), according to ISTAT.
Those increasing their exports the most were computers, electronic and optical apparatus (12.6 percent) and food, beverages, and tobacco (2.3 percent).
Data in the first half of this year showed exports to the EU fell by 14.1 percent from the same period of 2019, and to non-EU countries by 16.6 percent.
According to ISTAT, considerable drops were seen in sales to China (-18.6 percent), but wider in exports to other Asian countries (-20.7), North Africa (-21.7), and UK (-19.8).
Nonetheless, ISTAT on July 29 unveiled a report on "Exporting companies in the health and economic emergency" that suggested such firms could prove more resilient than average.
"In the March-April period, over 80 percent of manufacturing firms said they experienced a contraction in revenues. Yet, revenues halved for 48.1 percent of exporting firms, a percentage lower than that observed among domestic firms (54.2 percent)," it stated.
The report was based on a survey among about 90,000 firms representative of almost 90 percent of the value added and three-quarters of employment of Italy's productive system.
It explained that about one in three manufacturing firms reported that the COVID-19 crisis could entail "serious operational and business sustainability risks" for them in 2020.
"Compared to 35.6 percent of domestic companies (reporting these risks), 28.5 percent of exporters foresaw a serious danger for their business in the short term," it said.
Economist Lucio Poma, scientific director of Industry and Innovation with Bologna-based Nomisma think tank, said he was confident in exports recovering well, despite some lingering variables.
The expert's attitude was based on an analysis run by Nomisma on Italy's exports to Germany and the United States (the two main reference markets) and the loss in their gross domestic product (GDP) forecast by OECD in 2020 due to the COVID-19.
For the latter, the study considered an average of two forecasts made by OECD -- one for a single pandemic wave scenario and the other for a double-hit scenario.
"We estimated how much of our sales to these countries might be at risk, considering the elasticity shown by 13 of our exporting sectors to their GDP variation between 1995 and 2019," Poma told Xinhua.
In the case of Germany, an expected 7 percent GDP drop in 2020 would put at risk some 11 billion euros of Italian exports (out of total 58.1 billion in 2019), or some 19 percent.
"The two countries' productive systems are deeply interlaced, and most of our exports consist of semi-finished products necessary to their firms," the economist noted.
In the U.S. case, a GDP drop of about 8 percent would put at risk some 17 percent of Italian exports (7.8 billion euros out of total 45.5 in 2019).
Among the first 10 foreign markets of reference for Italy was also China, which imported Italian goods for some 12.9 billion euros in 2019. He noted that much of Italian sales to China involved sectors with low elasticity and they should not be much at risk.
While the Nomisma study was not meant to be an official forecast, it suggested a possible trend for Italy in 2020, and a relatively positive one.
Yet, the expert warned Italy's economy was in recession in the final part of 2019, and the coronavirus pandemic just acted as an accelerator. Thus, recovery could only take place if Italy is able to put in place an industrial policy supporting its most proficient sectors.
Finally, the ISTAT report unveiled in July showed over three quarters of exporting firms have planned strategies to adapt to the post-COVID phase compared to 60 percent of non-exporting ones.