Thailand plans to actively purchase spot crude cargoes over the coming months to top up its overall feedstock intake to accommodate rising refinery run rates, as Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy expects domestic fuel demand to rapidly increase with its tourism industry poised to make a stellar recovery. Thailand imported 2.34 million b/d of crude oil in March, jumping almost threefold from 773,000 b/d received in the same month a year earlier and more than double the 970,000 b/d imported in February, latest data from the Thai customs department showed. The country's condensate imports in the month also surged to 119,233 b/d from 35,962 b/d a year earlier, the data showed. Thai refineries and petrochemical plants have been progressively raising their crude throughput since the third week of January as transportation fuel demand continues to improve with more tourist hot spots opening up, plant operation managers and middle distillate marketers at IRPC said. In order to keep up with a rapid recovery in gasoline and jet fuel consumption along with the revival in the tourism industry, crude imports should be sustained at a minimum of around 1 million b/d to maintain adequate middle distillate production, according to crude and condensate traders at major Thai refiners. "Incremental crude procurement would have to come from the spot market as term supply volumes are fixed," said a feedstock manager at Thaioil.
Thailand has announced intentions to end pre-arrival testing for arriving guests on May 1. Regardless of their vaccination status, travelers will not be required to be tested prior to arrival or upon arrival. Thai government recently indicated that 713,183 international visitors had arrived in the country so far this year, with more than half of them being tourists. The Tourism Authority of Thailand said the country aims to attract at least 1 million tourists per month by the end of 2022, which would be equivalent to around 30% of pre-COVID monthly arrivals. Tourism is one of Thailand's major economic sectors and a crucial government tax revenue generator as it accounts for about 13% of the country's GDP. S&P Global Commodity Insights' Platts Analytics estimated that Thailand's gasoline demand would rise to around 192,000 b/d by summer holiday season in July, compared with 2021 average consumption of 180,000 b/d. In Bangkok and Phuket, the number of taxis in full operation had fallen by about half from pre-pandemic levels last year, according to the middle distillate marketers. However, private and state-run taxi companies should see their entire fleet in full operation once the monthly tourist arrivals surpass 2 million, the fuel marketers added.
Major crude suppliers
Thailand boosted its crude imports from the UAE in March as refiners picked up a slew of spot cargoes of light sour Murban, medium sour Dubai and Upper Zakum. Total shipments from the UAE in March jumped to 1.18 million b/d in March from 149,749 b/d received a year earlier and 205,423 b/d in February, the customs data showed. "Unlike Saudi Arabia, the UAE offers plenty of destination-free cargoes that Asian end-users and trading companies can freely trade in the spot market," the Thaioil feedstock management source said. Thailand's crude imports from Saudi Arabia rose 25% on the year to 225,822 b/d and the country also received 113,150 b/d from Nigeria in the month, compared with zero cargoes imported from the West African supplier a year earlier, the data showed.
Upstream operations
Thailand's domestic upstream output has been lackluster so far in 2022, raising the need for the refiners to rely heavily on imported crude oil. Thailand produced 81,820 b/d of crude oil in the first two months, down 22.2% year on year. Major output came from Sirikit at 25,389 b/d, down 8.9% year on year, Tantawan at 11,635 b/d, diving 9.7% year on year, and Nong Yao at 10,188 b/d, up 13.6% year on year. Its condensate output over January-February of this year fell 17.4% year on year to 68,627 b/d. The main production came from Pailin at 16,317 b/d, down 5.6% year on year, and Erawan at 14,584 b/d, down 55.3% year on year, according to data released April 12 by the Energy Policy and Planning Office. Output data for the first quarter is scheduled to be released later in May. Thailand's total refining capacity currently stands at 1.234 million b/d, the data showed.