Sovecon, one of the leading agriculture consultancies in Moscow, said on Friday that it had raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat exports in the new July-June marketing season by 1.3 million tonnes to a record high of 42.3 million tonnes. Sanctions-hit Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, supplying the Middle East and Africa. Western sanctions imposed on Moscow since it sent thousands of troops to Ukraine on Feb. 24 have not targeted grain exports but have complicated logistics and payments. Sovecon’s revision of its export forecast comes after it upgraded its estimate for Russia’s 2022 wheat crop last month, it said. “Russian impact on the global wheat market in the new season could be unprecedented,” Andrey Sizov, the head of Sovecon, said in a note, referring to the large crop and disrupted grain supplies from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports since the start of what Russia calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine.
Sovecon’s wheat export estimate is based on the assumption that Russia will resume active supplies in July when its state export quota expires and will not introduce any export curbs in addition to existing export taxes and February-June quotas. Exports of all grains from Russia in the 2022/23 season are currently estimated at 54.5 million tonnes, Sovecon said. That would almost match a record in 2017/18 when Russia exported 54.6 million tonnes of grain. Sovecon also said that it expected the Russian government to buy 1.1 million tonnes of wheat to add to its stockpile in the new season. The purchase will have limited impact on the country’s supply and demand balance, it added.