Recent low precipitation has increased Moroccan reliance on cereal imports. This trend is expected to extend to next year’s season with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasting Moroccan cereal imports to reach 10.4 million tonnes, up 35% from the 2021/22 average. FAO reported in its latest Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) on Morocco that 60% of the North African cereal imports are “soft” and “durum” wheat. Soft wheat originates primarily from the European Union, Argentina, and Brazil while Canada is the traditional “durum” wheat supplier. Over the past four years, Ukraine and Russia have contributed 20% and 7% to the Moroccan wheat supply. Yet the ongoing war in Ukraine, which coincided with the worst drought season in three decades, has put immense pressure on Morocco’s wheat supply, pushing the country to increase its wheat imports from partners such as France. While Moroccan imports vary year-on-year based on domestic production and demand, FAO noted, however, that this year’s 55% drop in wheat production compared to the five-year average called for more imports. Morocco’s wheat production in 2022 reached 2.5 million tonnes, which only represents 35% of the local production recorded in the exceptional 2021 season. Barley output witnessed a similar sharp drop this year to reach roughly 690,000 tonnes, only one-third of the five-year production average and one-fourth of the 2021 harvest volume. FAO associated the decrease in local cereal production with low precipitation between November 2021 and February 2022 which only reached half of the average, “causing widespread drought conditions across the country.”
The organization added that March and April rainfalls “were too late to instigate a recovery in vegetation conditions as the cereal crops had already reached the grain filling stage.” With local dams irrigating only 15% of agricultural land in Morocco, FAO said, rainfed agricultural production accounts for 85% of the total output which highlights the country’s heavy reliance on rainfalls and its vulnerability in the face of climate change. To support local wheat production, the Moroccan government raised the reference price for purchasing local production from MAD 2800 ($273) per tonne in 2017-2021, to MAD 3000 ($292)/tonne. It has also provided storage for farmers to preserve their wheat grain in licensed facilities. As for livestock farmers, FAO pointed out that the Moroccan government has launched an emergency distribution of 700,000 tonnes of subsidized barley in regions most impacted by drought. The government relief measures have extended to consumers, FAO argued, noting the role of subsidies in protecting domestic markets from high international prices.
The international food organization added that general price inflation was estimated at 6% in May while the annual food inflation rate was estimated at 8.6% in the same month, marking a 9.4% drop from the prior two months. While the FAO considered the inflation rate to be lower than ones’ recorded in other countries, the national price inflation rate was the highest recorded in Morocco since the early 2010s. The surge in energy prices, similarly caused by the war in Ukraine, has fueled public uproar against the government in the past weeks with the hashtag #dégageAkhannouch (translated to #Akhannouchleave) trending on social media platforms. On Thursday, Spokesperson for the Moroccan Government Mustapha Baitas responded for the first time to the online campaign, reassuring the masses that the government is taking “all measures likely to reduce the prices of several products, which have recently soared.”